Monday, June 13, 2016

Another Mass Shooting.

Another mass killing. This time a gay nightclub in Orlando. 50 dead and counting. The usual expected responses from the pro-gun crowd, the anti-gun crowd, religious and not-so religious homophobes, and politicians of all stripes. I'm not quite sold on the terrorism angle yet, even if the suspect called 9/11 and said so. And of course ISIS will accept him as one of their own. I think he was a homophobic American citizen with Islamist leanings who flipped, acquired a legally available automatic rifle and starting shooting. It doesn't take much planning or support from ISIS to do this. 

But I want to address the gun issue. 
Because it's easy for us non-Americans to shake our heads, tut and wag our fingers and say all guns should be banned, you savages. This seems logical for us since firearms aren’t easily accessible in most other Western countries: why can't you be like us? Yet it's not as clear cut as we'd like it to be.
The current reality is that firearms are readily available, most people can legally buy them and controls vary from strict to lax depending on the state. A lot of people accept them as part of daily life. But criminals can access weapons too, and not just those available to the general public. So the self-defense "if you criminalize guns, then only criminals will have guns" argument is not entirely false. The gun culture is so ingrained in US life via popular culture and the Constitution that changing this will be nigh on impossible. And just imagine the logistics (not to mention the societal impact) of enforcing a total ban: there are hundreds of millions of weapons out there. How do you find them and, more importantly, confiscate them? Kicking down doors at 4am? House to house searches? And what about those buried in fields, gardens, out in the desert? Hmm? A total ban might make emotional sense, but it's not practical. 

That said, it's been established beyond doubt that firearms are a psychologically "easy" way to kill large numbers of people. So it follows that if these weapons weren't easily accessible, a significant number of these mass murders probably wouldn't have happened. It's quicker & psychologically easier to shoot large numbers of people from even a short distance than to stab or beat them, face to face, with blades or blunt instruments. You don't get covered in their blood, feel their dying breath, see the shock, pain and terror in their faces or hear much when you have an automatic weapon rattling in your ear, ten meters or more away from your victims. 
Would all these mass shooters likely have been mass stabbers or bludgeoners in the absence of easy access to firearms? Probably not. But it’s clear that easy access to these weapons means easy access to killing lots of people quickly in the heat of the moment. 

When something like this happens, both sides come out swinging with the usual arguments: on one side you have “ban all guns” and the other side “let everyone have guns so the good guys can defend themselves”. Both of these are very naïve positions and are emotional rather than logical reactions.

I’m not saying anything new here and don’t have a solution. I’m just throwing my two cents worth out there.

Owning firearms is a responsibility as well as a right. You need a mandatory driving license to operate a motor vehicle. You need to pass tests to show that you understand how to drive safely and that you won’t be a danger to others.  This is a requirement, and cars aren’t even designed for killing. So why not a mandatory firearms license stating that you’ve passed a training course on firearms safety AND (because firearms have only one purpose: killing) you accept responsibility for securing your weapon when not using it. This training course could also verify that the applicant is mentally stable enough to responsibly own a weapon. If your weapon is used by another person because you irresponsibly left it readily accessible, then you should to a certain extent be responsible for what happens next. Maybe this is already the case in certain jurisdictions? I don’t know.

Yes, more bureaucracy, more administration. I know what the response to this will be, but at a certain point there has to be some kind of regulation. To what degree? I don’t know. I think it’s needed and it’s probably possible without touching the single-sentence Second Amendment. 

Enough people have died. But unfortunately again, once the media frenzy dies down, it’ll be back to normal until the next one.* Lather, rinse, repeat. And yes, there will be a next one. Have no doubt about it.

If nothing changes, then the American people will have to accept that these mass killings are the price to pay for the status quo vis à vis gun rights.

And to supporters of the status quo I say this:
I sincerely hope it never happens, but the day you get a call telling you that a loved one was shot by some misguided fool who had no trouble getting his hands on a gun and decided to make things “right”, I can only say I’m sorry for your tragic loss. 

*I started drafting this after the shooting in Charleston last year. It never ends. 

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Nimble fingers on the metro


So my phone got nicked.

Picture it. 6:45pm. April 24th, 2015. Paris. Metro Republique. 

I'm in a bit of a rush after work, changing metro lines. I'm tired, loaded down with a few bags, listening to a podcast on my iphone, and given that it's warm, wearing a suit jacket and not my usual overcoat. 
With the overcoat I usually have my hands in my pockets to control the volume of my phone, but since I wasn't wearing it, I had my phone in my jacket outside pocket, right side. But I'm listening to it, right? If someone tries to take it I'll hear the audio stop & I'll  have time to react. 

Right? 

Wrong. 

I don't know where and when they spotted me but they did. Rushing, loaded down, iphone earbuds going into my easily accessible suit jacket pocket. 

Easy prey.

Quite impressive, really. Coming up the stairs in a crowd (there was a delay so the platform was crowded). Lots of people. The voice in my ear stops, so I put my hand in my pocket to turn it up. Phone's not where it should be. I pat my pocket & look down to see the audio jack swinging in the wind. 

Shit.

I check my other pockets in case I moved it without thinking. Nope. It's gone. I look all around. Anything suspicious ? 
Yes, there, about 10 metres away. Frantic, fidgety movements. 2 kids standing close together in the crowd, face to face, heads down, glancing over at me then quickly looking away. They're about 16, 17 years old, a boy & a girl, slightly built. He's wearing a white tshirt and light coloured jeans. She's wearing a short black jacket and light jeans and she has a black backpack that they're both fidgeting with.
They glance at me again and look away quickly. The train's pulling in now & they head for it, flashing another quick glance at me one last time. So I run for it & get on with them. I'm hoping I can get to them before they hand it off to someone else. If they've already done that, then it's gone.  

I tap the guy on the shoulder.

"Did you find a phone?"
"Did I find a phone?! What're you talking about?"

-Did you find a phone?
-Uh, no, I didn't. Do you think I stole a phone?

-Well did you?
-no, why are you saying that?

He has an accent I can't place. The girl starts this kind of keening in a language I don't recognise as if to say "what's happening, what does he want, I'm afraid" and puts on this "I'm just a poor weak little girl who doesn't know anything" kind of demeanor that's designed to make me pity her. 

-You looked over at me on the platform & looked away when I looked back. At least 3 times. Why were you looking at me?
-I wasn't looking at you. 

The girl whines another thing or two.

-Yes you were. Why?
-I wasn't. I didn't take anything. 

He starts to raise his voice. 
-you're saying I stole your phone?
-did you?

Other passengers get involved. 
-You should call the police. 
-get metro security

Several of them try calling, but of course there's no signal. Some suggest getting off the train but I know the second we're on the platform they'll bolt like rabbits. 

-we're getting the police.
-get the police. I don't have your phone. I didn't do anything

-well, we'll see.
-and if you're wrong?

-if I'm wrong I'll apologise.
-just leave us alone. we didn't do anything. 

He's getting aggressive again. Several passengers tell him there's no point in getting excited - if he has nothing to hide then it'll be fine.
By now she's taken a seat, and he does too. He starts to get up again going on about how I'm full of shit. I'm watching his hands in case he tries to take a swing at me, but there are too many people around and I'm sure he won't. 
She goes to stand and seemingly tells him to calm down, but he shoves her roughly back onto the seat and growls something at me again along the lines of my being a pain in their ass. 

I tell him to chill out & sit back down again. He backs off. It's all a show. 

By now we've gone a station beyond my usual stop. 

-ok, now what? he says, lounging on his seat with the barest hint of a smirk. 

Good question, I say to myself. The smug little fucker is right. If he doesn't have it, then there's nothing. No point calling the cops or anything. It's gone. 

-empty your pockets. 

He's only wearing a light tshirt & jeans, it's obvious there isn't an iPhone 6 in a lifeproof case in there. 

-look. my pockets. want to put your hands in there? Go on, put your hands in, go on!

-you too, miss. I'm not touching you, show me your pockets and open the bag.

She shows me her jacket pockets, jeans pockets. The bag is empty except for what looks like a crappy old charger for an ancient phone. 

As I feared, they've already handed it off. Fuckers. 

Not only that, but they've gotten me far away from the person they gave it to. And I walked right into it. In hindsight it's obvious they wanted me to follow them. 

I'm two stops beyond my usual one. 

-It's gone, I say to no-one in general, I 'm getting off here. 

So I get off. Phoneless. 

I'm lucky enough that I can afford another one, within 24 hours I was back up and running. And no-one got hurt. 

But fucking scumbag parasites like that really piss me off. What's particularly annoying is that they're really good at this. They're smart, they work in teams and you're manipulated all the way. 

This is the first time in my 40 years around the sun that I've been pickpocketed, 15 of them travelling the Paris metro several times daily. I've always been careful. 
I suppose I became complacent, sure that after all this time without incident I had it figured out, and that only stupid tourists get their stuff lifted.  

Hubris is a bitch. 

Thursday, February 16, 2012

test 123

test 123

test 123

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Carl Sagan - A few links worth perusing

The first five awe-inspiring minutes of Carl Sagan's award-winning Cosmos series.

Carl Sagan reading the now-legendary Pale Blue Dot passage from the book of the same name.

Carl Sagan on the Tonight Show hosted by John Denver, standing in for Johnny Carson; classic Carl Sagan.

The Demon Haunted World: The classic work on critical and skeptical thinking. It's a lifechanger.

Carl Sagan interviewed by Ted Turner circa 1989. This is part 1 of a 5 part series on YouTube, Carl Sagan at his best in describing our common humanity, space, the benefits of scientific literacy and the fragility of our  world. Classic Sagan - time very well spent.

Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: The classic tool for critical thinking and detecting fallacious and/or fraudulent arguments, and a lot of other resources.

Posted via email from John's posterous

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Fix for iTunes Store hanging at "Accessing iTunes Store"

Just found this, hope it helps someone :)

FYI: I'm running iTunes 10.5 on Windows 7 (64 bit), but apparently this works on Mac OS too......it may be due to upgrading o 10.5 last week, but I'm not certain that's what caused it. Anyway, on to the fix!

Symptom:

when you do anything in  iTunes Store, itunes seems to hang showing "Accessing iTunes Store" in the banner.

Fix:

  • Open iTunes - go to the top bar, click the 'Store' drop down menu
  • Then click 'De-authorise this Computer'
  • Enter your password
  • Close & relaunch iTunes
  • Click 'Store' again then click 'Re-authorise this Computer
  • Enter password

et voila, the store should work properly again!

Source:

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1113558

Posted via email from John's posterous

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Paris Airshow 2011 Photos

Afterburners, Giant Airliners And......Sunburn: A Day At The Paris Airshow

It's been six years since I last went to the Paris Airshow, so when France24 announced on Twitter that they were giving tickets in exchange for tweets, I was in like flynn. And so it was on a sunny Friday morning I find myself on the RER B heading out to Le Bourget. Not too crowded, but still there was a 45 minute wait for the free shuttle to the airport.....I remembered it as not being too far a walk and arrived at the entrance in about 20 minutes. After checking in on Foursquare (of course) I pull out my camera and away we go. First stop: Ariane 5,  dominating the Le Bourget skyline. I took a couple of snaps of the engines for old times sake (I have tons from previous visits, but why not?). Then off to see the Americans. A little light this year - no Navy or Army aircraft, but the Air force F15E, F16, C130, C5, C17 and Marine Corps AH1Z and UH1Y still made for nice viewing. I had an interesting talk with a Marine Corps mechanic who told me that the AH1Z is brand new; declared combat-ready only in September 2010 and hasn't yet been on the ground. Interestingly, both the AH1Z and UH1Y share 84% of the same components making maintenance a lot easier. The mechanic also said (in true jarhead style) that the Army's AH-64 Apaches have a big problem with launching Sidewinders but, ahem, the Marine Corps AH1Z has no such issues.....Semper Fi :)

I dropped in to the ESA exhibit before the flight demos and saw a presentation on the joint ESA-NASA Cassini-Huygens mission (incidentally, it's still ongoing, click here for more info). The speaker paraphrased Carl Sagan's Pale Blue Dot when talking about this photo of Earth through the rings of Saturn ; The video on the Huygens probe landing on Titan was wonderful.

And after spending what seemed like an hour trying to get a sandwich at the Paul stand (more like 15 minutes, but still) it's flight time!!

I can't hep but let slip a big goofy grin when I hear screaming jet engines and see full afterburners flaming......yep: military high performance jets. In the air today was the Dassult Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Lockheed Martin F16. Even after seeing lots of this, I'm still blown away when I see 30-40 tonnes of metal flitting around the sky like a bat.....awesome.

The French Air Force display team, La Patrouille de France, put on a beautiful display, as alway. 

There was an interesting demo by a Russian Altair amphibious aircraft configured as a firefighter - pretty cool to see it dumping twelve tonnes of water in two seconds!

And then there's the A380 - the biggest commercial airliner in service today. I saw its first public display flight here 6 years ago and it's still a wonder to watch in the air....just goes to show that airliners can put up with a LOT more than their daily grind. It's simply amazing to see it float around like a bubble in the small airspace available above Le Bourget for displays, a testament to both the engineering skills required to build it and the skills of the display pilots.

All in all: I took a truckload of photos (some of which can be viewed here), got a dose of howling jet engines and a little sunburned - a great day :)

 

Posted via email from John's posterous

Friday, June 3, 2011

Why I'm Not Concerned About Cell Phone Radiation

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), a part of the World Health Organisation (WHO), recently published a report warning that there might be an elevated risk of certain types of brain tumour in heavy cell phone users. I was surprised to say the least, given that I've previously referenced the WHO as an authority when the swine flu vaccine scaremongering was at its peak a couple of years back. Personally, I'm pretty confident that my cell phone isn't going to kill me unless I walk under a bus while tweeting. Let me explain, using a little biology, physics and common sense.
Cancers happen when an otherwise healthy cell is reprogrammed by a genetic mutation to behave as a cancerous cell. This mutation can occur either by chemical interaction or by EM radiation. The effecting agent is described as a mutagenic agent. EM radiation does this by dislodging electrons in a chromosome which ionise the molecule, allowing it to accept other atoms or molecules which in turn induce a mutation in the chromosome, sometimes leading to cancer. In this case, the effecting agent is described as a carcinogenic agent. (Note: These mutation mechanisms have been around since life first arose on Earth and are fundamental to evolution; they are NOT a result of our technology running amok.)
The IARC claim is that there is a link between cellphone radiation and two types of brain cancer. For this to happen, cellphone radiation would need to be able to ionise the DNA molecule in order to introduce a mutation. This requires a certain amount of energy that cellphone radiation simply doesn't carry. It is non-ionising radiation. To understand more about this, let's take a look at what we mean when we talk about electromagnetic radiation. Below is the electromagnetic spectrum, the range of electromagnetic radiation from longwave radio through visible light all the way up to gamma rays, increasing in energy from right to left. As the frequency of the light increases, the energy it carries also increases.  



How do we know this? (Bear with me here, we'll get to cellphones shortly!) Albert Einstein won a Nobel Prize for discovering the Photoelectric Effect which, essentially, says that light above a certain frequency falling on a metal induces a current. This happens because the energy in the light's photons is sufficient to cause electrons in the metal to move. He showed that red light won't induce a current, but blue light will. Max Planck later found a relationship between the frequency of light and the energy of its photons. As we can see above, red light has a frequency of 700nm (7*10^ -7m), blue light 400nm (4*10^ -7m). It's clear from Planck's discovery that blue light is more energetic than red.  
Now, back to cellphones. Where does this radiation figure on the spectrum? Look at where red light is on the spectrum. Go below it, you find Infra-red, then below it again you find the microwave region,  a range of wavelengths from as long as one meter to as short as one millimeter, or equivalently, with frequencies between 300 MHz (0.3 GHz) and 300 GHz. Cellphones typically operate in the low end of the microwave region, overlapping with the high end of UHF radio frequencies, usually below 2Ghz. Obviously, this is well below the level of ionising radiation, which is beyond the UV region of the spectrum, in x-ray and gamma-ray territory. It can't be carcinogenic.
So why all the hoopla from the WHO? The IARC report states the following results:

"Results:
The evidence was reviewed critically, and overall evaluated as being limited  among users of wireless telephones for glioma and acoustic neuroma, and inadequate  to draw conclusions for other types of cancers. The evidence from the occupational and environmental exposures mentioned above was similarly judged inadequate. The Working Group did not quantitate the risk; however, one study of past cell phone use (up to the year 2004), showed a 40% increased risk for gliomas in the highest category of heavy users (reported average: 30 minutes per day over a 10‐year period).

'Limited evidence of carcinogenicity': A positive association has been observed between exposure to the agent and cancer for which a causal interpretation is considered by the Working Group to be credible, but chance, bias or confounding could not be ruled out with reasonable confidence. 

'Inadequate evidence of carcinogenicity': The available studies are of insufficient quality, consistency or statistical power to permit a conclusion regarding the presence or absence of a causal association between exposure and cancer, or no data on cancer in humans are available. "

What does this mean then? A correlation has been observed, but as skeptics are fond of saying, correlation does not equal causation. It would appear the IARC are playing the "let's keep an eye on this just in case" card. As far as I'm concerned there's nothing new here. Might there be an issue? Maybe. But it's unlikely. Cellphones have been in mass consumption for over 15 years now and there doesn't appear to be any increase in brain tumours, according to studies done in several countries. I'll be here waiting for the evidence, and if it comes I'll be the first to change my mind. 

Some links:
A list of other items in the same "2B Possibly Carcinogenic" category:
PZ Meyers on the IARC report:
Phil Plait weighs in:


Friday, April 15, 2011

Fukushima Vs Chernobyl - A Fair Comparison? Some Resources To Learn More

There's been a lot of fearmongering about the Fukushima incident, comparing it to (or its being "worse" than) the Chernobyl incident. Make no mistake, it is a very serious situation, and warrants careful attention. But with words like catastrophe, radiation & radioactivity being bandied about with reckless abandon, there's a lot of unnecessary anxiety out there. These words have a lot of emotional baggage attached to them, and tend to cause irrational overreaction.Time for some reason. For starters, look at this:Sources and distribution of average radiation exposure to the wo

Sources and distribution of average radiation exposure to the world population

(Source: WHO: http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/env/en/)

That's a lot of natural radiation! What is radiation though? And how does it relate to radioactivity? Further below are some resources I found useful in trying to get a grip on all this. In a nutshell:

  • radiation is and always has been around us;
  • the danger is all about the dose received over time;
  • comparisons to Chernobyl are not helpful, and even that event, the worst nuclear accident in history, doesn't appear to have had the health impact we have been led to believe it had;

The links below are a good starting point to help you learn about the differences between the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents; hopefully you'll also find out what the following mean:

  • Radiation, the different kinds and their effects on health; 
  • Radioactivity, how it's measured and what is meant by "half-life".
  • Radiation dose

These concepts aren't beyond anyone of average intelligence. You don't need a physics degree to get an understanding of the basics (I certainly don't have one!) but once you have a grasp of these ideas, the situation seems less frightening. And that can only be a good thing.

Links:

http://iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html - IAEA's daily updates on the Fukushima situation:

http://resources.nei.org/documents/japan/FactSheet_Chernobyl_Fukushima_4-12-11.pdf - Comparison of Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents

http://mitnse.com/2011/04/12/new-provisional-ines-rating-a-chernobyl-primer/ - Overview of the Chernobyl incident.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs303/en/index.html - WHO followup of Chernobyl health impact

https://xkcd.com/radiation/ - a very useful diagram charting relative doses from almost none (bananas!) to fatal, short term massive doses.

http://www.mitnse.com - MIT's Nuclear Science Engineering website, chock full of useful information on nuclear physics and technology.

http://mitnse.com/2011/03/16/radiation-introduction-and-radiation-status-for-fukushima -What is radiation? A good introduction.

http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/en/ - WHO on ionizing radiation

http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/env/en/ - WHO on natural and manmade radiation

Various articles:

http://www.lvrj.com/health/experts-nuclear-fears-overblown-119678799.html?ref=799

 http://topicfire.com/share/Fukushima-Chernobyl-Rating-But-Not-Chernobyl-Bad-17236188.html

http://www.ans.org/pi/resources/myths/

 

Posted via email from John's posterous

Friday, January 7, 2011

A Thought Experiment - The Case For A Cheap, Dumb-Terminal Google Tablet

Gmail. Google Calendar. Google Documents. Google Chrome. In terms of functionality, do these sound familiar? These are the basic requirements for most modern office (home or otherwise) workers: email, calendar, word processor\spreadsheet\slideshow apps, and internet browser. What's missing? An operating system.

Of course in these days of cloud computing, an OS on a local hard disk is somewhat passé. So right now we we have our Google Accounts to keep all of the above in one place. But it's a little cumbersome. You still need a local computer with its own OS. Or do you?

Imagine a dumb terminal, a Google netbook or a future, Google tablet if you will, that connects securely to a virtual Google desktop environment. All you need is a boot process that runs a citrix-type client from a small flash drive. Kick it up, log into your Google account and you're online, in a virtual Google environment. You surf the internet using Chrome and instead of your office suite of applications you have Gmail, Google Documents, Google Calendar. You don't need to backup your device: if it gets stolen, lost or otherwise destroyed, your data is still safe online. On the downside, you need a reliable internet connection, and you don't have much control over the local device, but that hasn't stopped the iPad from selling. Maybe allow for an offline mode in more expensive models?

These could be cheap, $100 laptop-type devices that we've heard about, or they could be flashy status symbol devices like the ipad. I think trying to compete with the iPad would be a foolish move even for Google, so I'll go with the low end, low maintenance device.

Anyway, just a few thoughts on what I think Google might do in the next year to 18 months. Let's see what happens.

Posted via email from John's posterous

Response to Another Astrologer

Here's a reponse I got from my last post, complete with a reading (!). Again, my reponses are in blue with the original message in black.

***********************************************************************************************

Thanks for your response. Here are my thoughts in blue below. 

I must start out talking about astrology to a skeptic. Astrology is a branch of Metaphysics explained here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphysics Similar to but different to philosophy and psychology. It has been in existence over 5000 years. Astrology became more refined when Ptolemy AD 90-168 came along. Ptolemy was a Psychologist, Geographer, Mathmetician, Astronomer and finally Astrologer. He was educated in Babylon which is now Iraq/Iran where all the best educated astrologers were along with astronomers.

To summarize his approach to what is now modern day western astrology: Inspiration and insight came to him during his numerous observations as astronomer, pscyhologist,geographer&mathmetician. He correlated cycles of planets & moon to emotional and external events happening to individuals including himself he had observed on a daily basis. He was numbers oriented which lead him to the refining of the everday "transits" (predictions). He took the person's natal chart which described specific personality traits and saw how transits would affect that individual. That's called the Law of Precedence. Basically a person's nature and what they have usually done before is the basis of the Law of Precedence. So personality is based solely on date of birth? And never changes? What about mental illness or brain injury? Or simply life experience? What about twins? We all know twins that have completely different personalities, life experiences and levels of success in life. Indeed there are twins where one  dies at an early age and the other goes on to a ripe old age. 

It is up to the modern day Astrologer to interpret someone's chart accurately. An astrologer first looks at the personality traits decribed in the natal chart to see what they're capable of. Then an astrologer looks at the Progressed Chart to see the progressed moon to see what distinct emotional changes or experiences they're experiencing. Then look to the transits starting with Pluto going inwards to the moon aspects. Pluto aspects take 2 years to experience down to the moon aspect which lasts 2 hours. Interpeting the transits or predictions all depends on the personality of the person. That's how astrology works. So it's predictable? The sun, moon, planets and stars are absolutely, 100% predictable. Does that mean that we can extrapolate into the future to see what's going to happen? Why not just plot out someone's life & say "here you are....this will be your life" ? Has this been done? What were the results?

Now, looking at your chart the part that makes me see the skeptic in you is your Mercury oppose Saturn. That shows you're suspicious by nature since communication wasn't used well in your family growing up. Thus, the skeptic in you grew. I'm not suspicious by nature, in fact I'm quite gullible which is why skepticism is so appealing to me. Otherwise I'd probably believe everything that came my way! I'm not so much  "I don't agree so you're wrong", I'm more "show me your evidence". I was a huge believer in extraterrestrial visitations, area 51, reincarnation etc until I opened Carl Sagan's "The Demon Haunted World" in 1996. Those were the roots of my skeptic nature; I always loved science, especially astronomy, but the scientific method wasn't something that was taught very well when I was at school. For the last 15 years

Plus you have 5 planets in Sagittarius. Sagittarius wants truth and honesty and education at all costs. -don't we all (well, except for Sarah Palin ;-P ) ? A very general statement that can apply to a huge number of people. Cast your net wide, you're sure to catch something as people tend to remember the hits & forget the misses. 

1 other aspect seems to pop out at me and that's your moon square Neptune which indicates you don't like others confronting you, but to protect yourself you tend to confront other first before they confront you. -again, a general statement. I'm non-confrontational as a rule. I tend to try to pre-empt situations before they become conflicts, not people. But again, this could be a hit for many, many people. 

Finally your moon conjunct Jupiter loves truth, education and can be optimistic, but given your skeptic/pessimistic nature you tend to fluctuate between the two. -everyone fluctuates between optimism & pessimism, even the most extreme cases of both.....it's normal human nature. 

Another aspect in your chart that doesn't relate to the skeptic part too much is your Venus oppose Saturn. It shows you feel you need to be responsible for everyone and everything which is usually learned by a parent. -again, vague enough to hit home for many people. 

Finally another aspect not related to the skeptic in you is Venus square Pluto. You tend to go for underdogs and do all the work in a relationship. -it's a cliché: everyone loves an underdog! All the work in a relationship? Nope, far from it. I would say my partner does more than I do, to my chagrin......

What I see here is a collection of general statements that, in a face to face meeting, would provide information for further development. If I were a believer, or even if I just wanted to do this for fun, I might be surprised at the "accuracy" of some of these statements.  I could dig around and find ways to make everything fit with even the most tenuous of links. As it happens, if I stand back and apply reason and logic, I see nothing more than a series of questions designed to elicit a response to provide further information for development. 

My views on astrology are based on the following: Science as a process has proven its reliability to demonstrate how the world works. Astrology is completely incompatible with the known, well-tested and well understood fundamental laws of the universe. If an astrologer (or anyone for that matter) were to make a very specific prediction for 2011 - (exact date, time, event, location) with precise unmistakable details, I'd sit up and take notice. That would be VERY interesting. But it hasn't happened yet, and after almost 2000 years in existence, that's not a good sign. 

Astrology is generally benign, except when used as the only resource when making important decisions. It scares me to think that French President Mitterand and Ronald Reagan, amongst others, consulted astrologers during their presidencies. The problem for me is the magical thinking that goes along with pseudoscience in general. "Well, I don't know how it works, but it works" is all well and good, but is anyone looking to find out how it works? Matthew gave the example of aspirin; we used it even though we didn't know how it worked...yes, but now we DO know how it works. It was studied and it had an underlying logic that corresponds with what we know from chemistry and biology. Compare this with homeopathy that, like astrology, has no known mechanism to explain how it works. In fact it DOESN'T work and any perceived effects are, for the most part, a combination of the placebo effect and regression to the mean. For astrology, the perceived effects are principally caused by the Barnum effect, the fallacy of sunken investment, and a willingness to believe. 

So, it was brief in interpretting your chart,but I want to show you how it works.

I've been busy writing alot in the last few days, so haven't kept up with your dialogue with the other astrologers, but I thought I'd give you a to the point explanation of astrology and including your chart to finish it up.

I hope I've been concise and to the point for you. I don't like to ramble on forever and prefer succinct comments. I hope to hear from you soon.

Posted via email from John's posterous

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Astrology Discussion on Twitter

I got into a chat on twitter with an astrologer last week. Long story. Anyway, during the following night, one of her aquaintances sent a whole bunch of tweets as a followup to our discussion, so I thought I'd blog my response instead of a tedious twitter back and forth. Feel free to discuss in the comments! Oh, and apologies for the delay in responding, it's been a hectic few days...but then, you already know that :)

First: Check out this video, it's a classic:
Richard Feynman on what science is:

In Black below are the tweets I received overnight, in blue, my responses. I was originally going to post a single piece, but figured it would be interesting to see the original tweets also.

Science is "Flick the switch, light goes on." Faith is "I hope the Power Co. didn't cut me off - ok
I don't have to have "faith" in astrology, because it observably and repeatedly works.... who's observing, and under what conditions? If we're only taking your word for it, then I'm sorry - not good enough. 
And I know there's little "scientific" evidence for it. -like.....magic, then, no?
Of course they used to pack wounds with cow dung before anyone heard of "penecillin"
 ...and not understanding hydrogen fusion never stop the Sun from shining.
Most skeptical arguments seem to boil down to "I haven't seen any proof that fits my worldview." -no, the view is that if there's sound evidence to support the claim, I'll change my mind AND my worldview.

In other words, Sagan's "Extraordinary proof (etc)" statement may be true, but it also mentally sets
the bar pf "proof" as high as you want it to be. -it should be high. The more extraordinary the claim, the more extraordinary the proof required. If we accept astrology as valid, it means that the fundamental laws of nature as we understand them today are completely wrong. These laws have been challenged again and again, and any predictions made using them have been verified and replicated the world over. 

Consider all the many, many, many studies -
about the effectiveness of antidepressants. Antidepressants are a crap shoot, but since we like
to think of the psyche as being the result of chemistry, we want to use chemistry to change it
Billions in research, and the best antidepressants can do is about 60% effectiveness -not aware of this, but I'm sure it's more complicated than a sweeping general statement like that. At a guess, I'd say efficient marketing by manufacturers, incorrect prescriptions to people that don't actually need antidepressants etc. More of a business ethics problem than a scientific one, IMHO. But then again, I don't have the whole story and I'm sure it's VERY complex. 

 But when I as an astrologer come up with 8 or 9 out of 10 predictions right, a skeptic starts with
"The Forer Effect" or "The Barnum Effect" or the "well, that's not how planets work" argument. - these are well documented phenomena. When you say you're "right" - based on what kind of prediction? Specific like "you'll slip on the stairs at work at 2.30pm on March 23rd, but it'll be only a mild sprain) Or vague like "there'll be big changes in 2011" , ie Barnum-type cold-readings? Who decides you're right, you or the client? Under what conditions? 


We've stopped throwing virgins into volcanoes, yet the "superstition" of astrology persists.
Now that just couldn't be because maybe astrology works or something. Noooooo. :) -correct :) 

Every argument I've heard against astrology can be applied to any branch of psychology. -Confusing pop psychology with clinical psychology and psychotherapy. Work by Skinner, Pavlov, and Milgram are among the best known examples of predictive, peer reviewed studies that stand up to the test of time. Psychotherapy doesn't have a lot of fans in the hard sciences as there are problems regarding falsifiability. 

Do I understand the mechanism by which astrology works? Hell no. -does anyone? So why are there no astrological research university departments to discover how it works? Surely uncovering the mechanism of astrology, if there is one, would be a monumental discovery. Einstein, Newton, Feynman, Dirac, Fermi: so long, farewell. Countless Nobel prizes await the discoverers of such a mechanism. I may not understand how every part of a car works, but I can find someone who does. If I want to, I can go all the way up to the engineers that designed it using the cumulative results of centuries of scientific research. 

But peasants packing wounds with cow dung weren't microbiologists either
 ...they just saved lives. Is that "scientific"? Well, they observed results...
 ...and (surprise!) found they were repeatable. No lab involved, but still "scientific." -not sure about the facts of cowdung, but the process is sound. Hypothesis, experiment, replicate. Science is not a body of knowledge, it's a process. The knowledge changes, and in fact does when new evidence contradicts previous observation. The process is to get past the human factor. Ego, error, sloppiness, and fraud can all slip in. Peer review is designed to catch this. It's not perfect (nothing involving humans is!), but in the long run it works. The fact that I'm typing this on a computer that could've run the entire Apollo Program is testament to that, as is the Apollo Program itself. 

Meanwhile, billions of $ pouring into "String Theory," and many careers built on it
So where are all the correct predictions made by String Theory"? Anyone...? Anyone...? -String theory is controversial even in the scientific community. It makes plausible claims but at this moment in time, they are untestable experimentally. Because of this, some physicists claim it's more like philosophy than science. I have no opinion; it's completely over my head, although I did enjoy the Elegant Universe! In the meantime, in mainstream science, astronomers have discovered planets outside our solar system (any incidence for astrology, by the way?) we've rendezvous'd with comets (how do they figure into horoscopes?), the Cassini mission has spent years studying the Saturn system, New Horizons will get to Pluto in a few years, and Messenger will get to Mercurian orbit in March of this year. In the 20th century we discovered that we live in a galaxy, one of billions, in a universe far bigger and older than any of our ancient ancestors could possibly have fathomed. We discovered that the anomalies in Mercury's orbit (precession of perihelion) was due to relativistic effects and can be explained by General Relativity. What advances has astrology made in the last century? Where are the predictions made by Astrology?

Astrology should have nothing to fear from science, any more than any other pursuit
Sadly, most of the skeptics I hear seem to use the "scientific worldview" as the club
they use to dismiss anything that doesn't suit their preconceptions. In other words, they
Make Science their Dogma, and (paradoxically) become as benighted as those they like
to feel superior to. No surprise, really: skeptics are humans too. Humans do that.
But if Science is a controlled, logical search for the truth, I like to think it DOES
apply to Astrology. It *should*. It's just that I rarely if ever see it applied.

This "scientific worldview" that you seem to lament created the world we live in today. The computers we work on, the cars we drive, the medicine we take, the clothes we wear, our telephones, food, longevity. It's true that some skeptics get on their high horses about views inconsistent with science. I know, I'm sometimes one of them. But the scientific method has gotten humanity this far. It's improved our lives (at least in first world countries; geopolitics is another matter altogether) immeasurably in the last century. Imagine our great-grandparents hearing of today's world: mother and child will most likely survive childbirth; all of your children will most likely live to adulthood. You'll most likely live to at least your mid-seventies. We can speak with anyone, anywhere in the world instantaneously. We can get anywhere in the world within 2 days. The body of knowledge we call science changes regularly as new discoveries overturn old ones. The "scientific worldview" means that if you present me with evidence for a claim, I'll listen to it and I'll sincerely evaluate it. If it's convincing, then I'll change my mind. Simple as that. 

Here's a previous post of mine on astrology.

Posted via email from John's posterous

Friday, December 31, 2010

2010 in retrospect

2010 is gone. Another year over, a new one just begun (who said that again? :-P )Well, tomorrow :)

What happened this past year? Here are just a few things that stood out to me:

Tech\Internet

The iPad underwhelmed us.....but still went on to sell like hotcakes.

Google Buzz became a fizzle, leaving the way open for Facebook and Twitter. Twitter took off and is soaring. Facebook's Like button is everywhere now. Oauth is everywhere, and you can now sign on to a multitude of services with it, linking them to Facebook and Twitter with just a couple of clicks.

 

Wikileaks blew the whistle on a helicopter gunship crew taking out what appear to be unarmed civilians in Iraq. Assange is accused of rape. That quietens down until wikileaks unveil a huge amount of diplomatic cables between Washington and its embassies around the world. The rape accusations come screaming back. Not saying there's any connection, but it sure is strange timing. I don't know what to make of it all.....

International:

Ireland's economy implodes, bank debt is transferred to the taxpayer, and Ireland is now owned, more or less, by the EU and the IMF. Unemployment is through the roof. But Brian Cowen doesn't accept that it's his fault.

Korea heats up: First a South Korean naval ship explodes mysteriously last March. Artillery exchanges in December with more and more belligerent language from both sides. Scary times.

Times Square attempted bombing: luckily the would-be bomber didn't know what he was doing.

Eyjafjallajökull gently reminded us that we're just tenants here on earth, and that nature can shake us off like fleas at any time.

Roman Polanski was arrested in Switzerland and threatened with extradition: the "intellectual" artsy crowd throw a collective hissy fit. Sorry, if you admit to committing this kind of crime, you do the time. It doesn't matter if you cure cancer, bring world peace, end poverty, make great movies, and save the earth from a giant comet all at once: justice is blind, and Roman the movie maker should be treated in exactly the same way as, for example, Mick the bricklayer. And if Mick were on the lam, he wouldn't even have had time to get off the plane before being sent back.

Catholic Church child abuse scandal explodes, Pope is sorry :/ He visits Britain in September, and Godwins himself within minutes of opening his mouth.

Simon Singh off the hook in Chiropractor Libel case and the BCA are on the back foot but English Libel reform has not yet been implemented.

Space exploration:

A new spaceflight strategy was announced by the Obama administration to mixed reviews. Return to the moon is out, asteroid mission & Mars orbit in 20 years, with humans on the ground in about 30. Constellation is cancelled, no US heavy lift capability before 2015, meaning NASA will rely on Russian goodwill to get its astronauts into space in the interim.

The WISE mission released its first images back in February:

There was a lunar eclipse during the Winter Solstice, a rare event that won't happen again until 2094. The last such occurence was almost 400 years ago.

The Martian lander Phoenix was finally declared dead in May. The Odyssey orbiter had been listening for communication from the lander for months to no avail, so the decision was taken to officially end the mission.

SDO First light images released in April.

Messenger images of Mercury released. Messenger timeline: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/messenger/timeline/index.html

Cassini continues to enthrall us, in a mission that launched in 1997. Details here: http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/index.cfm and here: http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/multimedia/products/pdfs/cassini_msn_overview.pdf

LHC goes online and Twitter is briefly taken over by Science. Science was cool for a while there...a joy to behold!

STS-131 & 132 missions added further ISS components.

STS-133 Discovery kept us waiting for a week, and then decided that she didn't want to make her last flight just yet....launch on hold, tentatively scheduled for February 3 at the time of writing, but who knows! Having said that, the tweetup was incredible! I wasn't there, but followed it via twitter and justinTV\hatcam....what a blast!

Sport

Spain won the FIFA World Cup tournament, beating The Netherlands 1-0 in the final. In the meantime, the French team collapsed into a fiasco of infighting, backstabbing, and general unpleasantness that appears to be unprecedented. It was like watching a bunch of spoiled children throwing a tantrum, and management wasn't any better.

The French rugby team however, fared better. They won the 6 Nations Rugby Tournament, Ireland second. Still showing good form, they'll be a formidable presence in next year's rugby world cup in New Zealand.

The feelgood story of the year: 33 Chilean miners were rescued safe and sound after being trapped underground for 69 days following an explosion. An estimated 1 billion people watched the rescue operation live.

Notable deaths this year:

Alexander Haig, US Secretary of State under Reagan; Viktor Chernomyrdin, Russian prime minister under Boris Yeltsin; US diplomat Richard Holbrooke; Former Hussein regime official Ali "Chemical Ali" Hassan al-Majid; mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot; neutron bomb inventor Samuel Cohen; Legendary Apollo Program launchpad boss Guenter Wendt; author J. D. Salinger; singer and civil rights activist Lena Horne; Sex Pistols manager Malcolm McLaren; Popular British comedian Norman Wisdom; Double Tour de France winner Laurent Fignon; Irvin Kershner movie director (The Empire Strikes Back); director Blake Edwards, (Pink Panther, Breakfast at Tiffany's); actors Corey Haim (The Lost Boys), Tony Curtis (Some Like It Hot), Dennis Hopper (too many to list), Gary Coleman (Different Strokes), Peter Graves (mission impossible), Simon McCorkindale (Manimal);

 

And on that note.....

Happy New Year!!!

 

Posted via email from John's posterous

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

A Bit of Fun Speculation: Why A Zombie Uprising Wouldn't Be An Apocalypse

Yep. I’ve been watching AMC’s The Walking Dead. Creeps you out at all the right places, and makes you think when you’re not jumping.  I like it. 

But honestly: a zombie apocalypse?  

Biological improbabilities aside*, it's simply not plausible to me. But  it is interesting to think that we’re so screwed up as humans that we couldn’t handle a zombie uprising. Sure there are lots of them, but they are dumb (in most incarnations - for now we'll stick with the Romero-type zombie). They don't plan, hide, adapt, co-operate or even use tools. The only weapon they have is numbers. And they’re mortal. On the other hand, you can't get them to surrender or break their morale. But still, any sizeable number of humans with weapons, armoured vehicles, construction equipment and basic engineering skills should have no problem. People would die, certainly, but I don’t think civilisation would crumble if action were taken quickly**

So the dead have risen and are becoming a bit of a problem. Now what? Well, as previously mentioned, they’re pretty stupid. They don’t have a capacity to plan or reason. They can’t climb over significant barricades, and their idea of siege warfare is to stand around moaning at the obstruction. So here's what I think, and it's something we rarely see in the movies - although Max Brook did something vaguely similar in his novel "World War Z".

First secure safe areas behind high walls. Then draw the undead en masse into an ambush zone, for example, chopper in a few guys in APCs, have them step out like cheese in a mouse trap, and when the Zs come to chow down, batten down the hatches and wait for the next phase: a modern version of the chariot charge. Line up a few tank platoons, and then just run the fuckers over. Squish ‘em to mulch, then follow up with armoured infantry to take out what’s left. Lather, rinse, repeat. Same story in cities: APCs up and down the streets to take out the large numbers, then infantry sweep and clear. It’d be much simpler than clearing out, say, Hue or Fallujah. The bad guys aren’t sneaking around taking potshots at you from concealed positions. They’ll come right up to you and let you pop 'em. Piece of piss. 

Military forces the world over ambush and defeat other smart, well-armed humans on a regular basis. Hannibal killed 70,000 Romans at Cannae in a few hours with nothing more than horses, swords and bows***. Beats me why a modern, fictional military can never do anything effective against the mindless hordes of the undead. 

In Brook's story, the military eventually mothballed their hi-tech weapons & went back to basics: phalanx-type infantry units with bite proof body armor. In large engagements, soldiers fired volleys of single headshots from long range in what seems almost Napoleonic-era warfare but with accurate weapons. Once they figured that out, they took back the world. But again, it got out of hand in the first place because of human stupidity. 

So much for the apocalypse. 

And what's with the popularity of zombies? They’re biologically implausible and easily defeated (unless everyone -government, military, all the way down to Joe Soap- consistently makes the wrong decision in no brainer situations, like they do in the movies). I think it’s several things:
  • The thought that our civilization is so fragile that an enemy the Romans could have defeated could bring it down;
  • That human egos and emotions could overcome our intellect and allow sheer brute force destroy us;
  • The sheer terror of relentless, mindless ghouls coming to devour us and our families alive;
Yet zombies are fun. There's no need to feel guilty about killing them, and the movies are generally a commentary on how screwed up we humans are in letting our emotions and egos run the show instead of being rational and doing the obvious.

Personally, I’m more worried about a pandemic taking out 20-30% of us, a bad winter wiping out even more, leaving the survivors in a more or less preindustrial society. 

But having said that, I really enjoyed season 1 of The Walking Dead.

* Dead is dead. Once the heart stops, none of the body's cells get oxygen and begin to die. That includes motor neurons and muscles. So no more movement of any description. And how do their teeth stay intact? Zombies of this kind are clearly impossible. Now, the "28 days later" "I am Legend" type? Not so clear cut. They're not undead, but infected with some kind of "rage" virus. Could this happen? Who knows? :)

**A study on the mathematics of a zombie uprising: http://www.mathstat.uottawa.ca/%7Ersmith/Zombies.pdf by Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad and Robert J, Smith?. In Infectious Disease Modelling Research Progress, eds. J.M. Tchuenche and C. Chiyaka, Nova Science Publishers, Inc. pp. 133-150, 2009. ISBN 978-1-60741-347-9.

***The Romans seem to have panicked when they realized they were surrounded and trapped, making it easier for Hannibal's forces to wipe them out. Zombies, of course, wouldn't panic, but this would make them even more predictable. And as Sun Tsu said, if you know yourself and your enemy, you won't lose in a hundred battles. 

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