Saw this in the news last night. It appears that narcolepsy is being linked to H1N1 vaccination. This set off my FUD alarm, so let's quickly look at the numbers:
- 6 million French people were vaccinated against the swine flu virus. France's population is approximately 65 million; for convenience let's call it a 10% vaccination rate;
- There are approximately 500 new cases of narcolepsy reported annually in France;
- 6 of these are being linked to the vaccination;
- 30 million were vaccinated in Europe with 22 reported cases;
So in summary:
~10% of the French population were vaccinnated:
Reported new cases every year comprise 0.0008% of the total French population;
Reported new casessuspected of links to the vaccine comprise 0.0001% of the vaccinated French population;
reported new cases in the Europe comprise 0.00007% European vaccinated population
So what does this mean? Are the numbers of cases statistically significant? I'm no statistician, but I think given the huge populations involved and the tiny number of suspected cases, I have my doubts. At this point, as the Lepoint article below points out, a link hasn't been established. If there is one we should know about it, but given the numbers, I think it's premature to start shouting from the rooftops about this. People are already a little wary thanks to the antivax movement and the hysterical bleating last year surrounding the H1N1 vaccine.There's no need to add speculation to it.
Sources:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/briefing_20091119/en/index.html
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