Thoughts on UPS Suspect Packages Yesterday

Those in the know are saying it’s the work of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Suspect packages are still being investigated in Newark, N.J., Philadelphia, Pa., and New York, N.Y., as well as East Midlands, England, and Dubai.

What’s worrisome is that (so far) only one of the suspect packages seems to have had real explosives, and it’s not yet clear that it’s even a viable device. Why is this of concern? Because coming from Yemen, a hotbed of Islamist terrorism and the origin of many recent AQ attacks (successful or otherwise),  they are obviously going to be under much more scrutiny. Any packages coming from Yemen with obviously visible wires, printer toner and white powder will noticed. In that it’s multiple targets simultaneously, that smacks of AQ. Yet there appear to have been no significant resources (personnel, explosives, detonators etc) involved. It’s almost like they wanted these packages to be found. This sounds to me like one of the following scenarios in play:

• a “we’re still here” psychological operation;
• a distraction to cover another operation elsewhere;
• a probe to test reaction times and procedures.

If it’s the first then there’s nothing to be worried about, business as usual. The other two are much more sinister. They indicate a deeper, longer term plan coming to fruition.

So what can we do? Refuse to be terrorised. If we go about business as usual, then we win.

If we allow them to scare us into changing how we live then they win, even if nobody gets hurt.

Posted via email from John's posterous

Terrorism is extremely rare, so refuse to be terrorised!

 

Great article by the Register concerning the rarity of terrorism and why you shouldn't be terrorised.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/08/mutallab_comment/

If we react to any incident with fear and panic, then the instigators will have achieved their aims.Their goals are to disrupt of our way of life, actually killing people is just a means to that end and is a very secondary goal. So even if their attempts to commit mass-murder fail, they still achieve their goals if we overreact, which we inevitably do - every single time. We close the stable door after the horse has bolted, we crank up the colour coded alerts and a hysterical media frenzy whips everyone into a state of, um, well, TERROR! We, (the media, governments and public at large) collectively, are doing their work for them! They must be laughing their arses off when they see how we react on the extremely rare occasion that one of them tries to blow up a plane, even when he screws it up royally.

Via Bruce Schneier

 

Posted via web from John's posterous

Attempted airline bombing: Security Theatre, front and centre

Dear oh dear.  So now, in addition to no liquids (unless you bought them in duty free, of course, which is another whole mess), taking your shoes off, no nail clippers, no wrapped packages, no cutlery, no glass (that soda can makes a nice little knife, though), you have to stay seated with no ipod, laptop, camera, or book for the last hour of the flight. Cue hundreds of bored, irate passengers. It seems that the bad guys will only do their bad guy thing at the end of the flight. Silly terrorists, how predictable - they must be really stumped now !

And eventually, someone's going to get stabbed with a pencil (come on, it's gotta happen sometime) and that's it, no more inflight writing materials. Someone gets angry and throws his iphone at a crewmember? No more cellphones on board. Seriously, the way this is going, within five years there'll be no more carry-on luggage, and we'll all be forced to change into jumpsuits before boarding, handcuffed to our seats from gate to gate.These reactive "security" measures are bordering on absurd.

So what to do?

Here's a radical idea: what about observing passenger behaviour before they get on the plane? Look at El-al: probably the biggest target there is for terrorists , and only one successful hijacking since 1968. Is it magic? Hi-tech wizardry? Nope: it's plain ol' police work and human observation, supported by good training. They have a layered approach to security that starts even before check-in. See here for some of their practices:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Al#El_Al_security

So enough with the theatrics already. Put trained observers on the ground both inside and outside the secure area. If this guy Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab had undergone any kind of screening at all by competent persons, he'd have been pulled aside for further questions, and unless he's a highly skilled liar, he'd have been detected, or at least prevented from boarding.

Bruce Schneier's been saying this for years:

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/12/separating_expl.html

Posted via web from John's posterous