Astrology - is there anything to it?

Anyone who has studied astronomy at even the most elementary level understands can see that the claims of astrology are untenable. Why? Because we know that we are only a small speck in a universe that's incomprehensibly large and old. The possibility that the stars and planets can have some special effect on our lives outside of the known laws of physics is improbable, to say the least. And even though the daily horoscope on one's favourite website or newspaper might be an amusing daily distraction, plenty of people take astrology seriously enough to spend sigificant amounts of time and money on it.

So just what is astrology? Astrology claims that the position of the sun and planets in relation to the zodiacal constellations (see below) at the time of our birth has a profound influence on our personality and destiny (for the purpose of this discussion I'm referring to "western" astrology, but the same principles apply to Chinese, Indian, Aztec and other variants). We'll take a look at the main, obvious evidence against this, and also why it's still around.

But first: a little astronomy :)

What are constellations? These are groups of stars that resemble terrestrial artifacts, mythological characters or animals. There are 88 recognized by the International Astronomical Union, details here. Some of these shapes take a little imagination to see, others are a bit more obvious. To the ancients, one group of stars looked vaguely like a lion, another a goat, and yet another a scorpion. We humans projected our bronze age world onto the stars, as did the 17th century explorers when they saw the southern hemisphere constellations for the first time. They saw ships prows, telescopes and crosses in the sky. The constellations in the sky are in fact paredolian artifacts.

But they're not fixed. Nothing in the sky is. It's just that our lives are too short to notice movements that take place over hundreds of thousands of years. In all of recorded history the skies haven't changed significantly. We don't notice that the pole star is gradually drifting away from celestial north and that in the future, various other candidates will take its place. In a few hundred thousand years, the constellations we look at will have changed beyond all recognition due to stellar migration. Those that concern us for the present discussion are the zodiacal constellations, those that are grouped on the ecliptic - the imaginary line traced by the sun's annual apparent path in the sky.

So how do the planets come in to all this? The planets move around the sun in fixed orbits. As they do, we see them move "in" and "out" of constellations in the background. This is what astrologers mean when they say, for example, that Jupiter is in Leo: the planet Jupiter, in it's journey around the sun as seen from our perspective, passes in front of the constellation Leo. Of course, Jupiter is a lot closer than any of the stars in Leo, and Leo itself is just an arbitrary collection of stars at various distances from us and each other. We know, thanks to Kepler and Newton, exactly where all the planets are are now, where they were in the past, and where they will be in the future. We also know that when a planet appears to move backwards in its orbit (in retrograde) that it's simply because the Earth's orbit is overtaking that of the planet in question. Here's a good visual explanation for how this works in the case of Mars.

By what mechanism could the planets and stars affect us at our birth? Physics tells us there are only four fundamental forces in the universe. The strong nuclear force, the weak nuclear force, gravity and electromagnetism. The first two can be eliminated as they concern only atomic nuclei. EM is plausible only if the baby is born outdoors, and even then the light from the planets takes a certain amount of time to get to the earth. So should that be part of the calculation? And what about gravity? Its effect is inversely proportional to the square of the distance between the two bodies (F=G (mm')/r² if you remember your high school physics classes) so the gravitational force of the baby's mother would be millions of times stronger than our closest celestial neighbour, the moon, never mind any other celestial bodies. To paraphrase Carl Sagan, the moon is more massive, but mommy is closer.

Another problem:
Due to precession of the equinoxes the sun doesn't "pass" through these constellations on the dates proposed by astrology proponents. Here are the dates that are commonly accepted as being the "sign" of a person born in that interval (when the sun's apparent movement takes it through the the zodiacal constellations), as compared to when the sun actually crosses these constellations:

Sign	Sun's actual passage through constellation	Commonly accepted Astrological solar passage through constellation
Capricorn	Jan 20 to Feb 16	December 23 - January 20
Aquarius	Feb 16 to Mar 11	January 21 - February 19
Pisces	Mar 11 to Apr 18	February 20- March 20
Aries	Apr 18 to May 13	March 21 - April 20
Taurus	May 13 to Jun 21	April 21 - May 21
Gemini	Jun 21 to Jul 20	May 22 - June 21
Cancer	Jul 20 to Aug 10	June 22 - July 22
Leo	Aug 10 to Sep 16	July 23 -August 21
Virgo	Sep 16 to Oct 30	August 22 - September 23
Libra	Oct 30 to Nov 23	September 24 - October 23
Scorpius	Nov 23 to Nov 29	October 24 - November 22
Ophiuchus	Nov 29 to Dec 17	?
Sagittarius	Dec 17 to Jan 20	November 23 - December 22

A related problem, as evidenced by the table above: The zodiacal constellations aren't spread neatly and evenly across the sky. For convenience, most astrologers use twelve virtual constellations that divide the zodiac into neat, thirty degree regions and work from this instead of using the visible night sky. For example, the sun takes more than twice as long to pass through Virgo (44 days) as it does Cancer (21 days), yet astrology counts them equally, as per column 2 above.

Looking at the table again, you'll see a thirteenth constellation that's rarely mentioned: Ophiuchus. Now why don't we see this in the daily horoscopes? How many people have you met that say "Hi I'm an Ophiuchus, what's your sign?" ? Logically there should be as many Ophiuchuses (Ophiuchi?) as Leos or Capricorns. But there aren't. There are some astrological systems that use the constellations as they appear in the sky, but are in the minority. This detail aside, however, the fundamental theory of all astrology is the same: celestial bodies influence our destiny.

One obvious test of astrology is fraternal twins (to eliminate any possible genetic factors): If astrology were valid, they should have similar lives as they were born under similar circumstances. Time and again we see that this is not the case.

So given that we have this evidence against astrology (and there's plenty more where that came from), why does it persist into the 21st century?

We can boil it down to two principle reasons:

• A fundamental lack of critical thinking skills;
  
• General scientific illiteracy\apathy and a lack of curiosity in how the world works.

Both of these are essential to understanding why astrology, like other pseudosciences, persist into our technological age. These problems can ultimately be addressed by teaching critical thinking skills at both high school and university level (using, for example The Baloney Detection Kit *), and by using creative outreach programs that engage the public at large. As regards the latter, CatherineQ recently wrote a wonderful piece on why engaging people's emotions in popularising science is essential.

In the end, we may think of astrology as a quaint, quirky holdover from the past, and so adopt a "what's the harm" attitude.

At first glance there is no real danger in letting people pursue beliefs that may cost them a little money but are otherwise harmless.Yet there is real harm here. Astrology, like homeopathy and other pseudosciences, promotes magical thinking. No evidence or thought is required. It leads us to take the word of anyone who comes along with a magic solution to any and all problems. And when magical thinking gets together with health care or politics, the results can be disastrous, much more than merely financial. Would you like your leaders making policy based in part on astrological advice?

*Taken from THE reference on critical thinking and skepticism, Carl Sagan's The Demon Haunted World . If you haven't yet read it, it's a lifechanger.

Posted via email from John's posterous

What is Homeopathy?

I've heard a lot about this homeopathy stuff. It's for sale in almost every pharmacy here in Paris, but just what is it? Is it effective? Must be if it's for sale in a pharmacy, right?

Let's take a look at how the British Society of Homeopaths describes it - from the horses mouth, as it were. Here's their "what is" page:

http://www.homeopathy-soh.org/about-homeopathy/what-is-homeopathy/

"Homeopathy is a system of medicine which is based on treating the individual with highly diluted substances given in mainly tablet form, which triggers the body’s natural system of healing."

Hmm. Not much information there, but ok....let's read on further.

"Scientifically it can not yet be explained precisely how it works, but new research in biochemistry and quantum physics is going some way towards shedding light on the process."

How it works can't be explained, yet with an appeal to quantum physics. Curious.

"Homeopathy has been used in the UK for over two hundred years. It was Samuel Hahnemann, a brilliant doctor working in 1796 who developed the scientific and philosophical foundations of this gentler way of healing. These scientific principles form the basis of successful homeopathic practice today."

OK. First things first: Just because something lasts a long time doesn't mean it's right. Look at the Ptolemaic model of the solar system. That lasted for thousands of years until Copernicus, Kepler and Galileo came along and upset the applecart.
Next: During Hahnemann's time, when blood-letting, leeching and other sorts of prescientific medical practices were being used, just about anything non-invasive would've been gentler. This was before we knew anything about the germ theory of disease, before anesthetics, before antibiotics. A time when few children reached adulthood because of disease, and childbirth was each and every time a very serious risk to the lives of both mother and baby. In other words, medical prehistory. Since then we've learned a lot about biology, anatomy, biochemistry and pharmacology. We've learned that leeches and bloodletting don't work, but on the other hand we've held on to some of the ancient wisdom that works. For example, it's been known for millenia that the bark of the willow tree can sooth pain and from that we developed aspirin. This is how medicine, and science in general, evolves. If it works it stays, if it doesn't it gets tossed out with the leeches. To paraphrase Tim Minchin from his poem Storm: alternative medicine that works is known as medicine."

"How are the remedies made?
The raw extracts (from plants or animals) or triturations (from minerals and salts) are made into a ‘tincture’ with alcohol which forms the basis of the dilution procedure. Dilutions are made up to either 1 part tincture to 10 parts water (1x) or 1 part tincture to 100 parts water (1c). Repeated dilution results in the familiar 6x, 6c or 30c potencies that can be bought over the counter: the 30c represents an infinitessimal part of the original substance."

No information on how the "tincture" is prepared, but this is, after all, an outline. So let's do the math. 1C is a dilution of 1 part per 100 in water. 30C is 1C repeated 30 times. So I dilute it down 1:100. Then I take a part of this and dilute THAT down 1:100. Repeat 30 times. Robert L. Park, Ph.D., executive director of The American Physical Society, has noted that since the least amount of a substance in a solution is one molecule, a 30C solution would have to have at least one molecule of the original substance dissolved in a minimum of 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10^20) molecules of water. It would require a container more than 30,000,000,000 times the size of the Earth to be certain of containing 1 molecule of active ingredient at this dilution!

(source: http://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/homeo.html)

So in reality, we're left with a container of water. Wow. How could it possibly work if it's only water?

After each dilution the mixture is vigorously agitated in a machine that delivers a calibrated amount of shaking. This is called succussion. It is thought that this process leaves an energetic imprint of the medicinal substance throughout the body of water .

Here's another alarm bell. An "energetic imprint". Some mysterious energy, undetectable by science, gets imprinted in the water. In physics when we speak of energy, we refer to the ability to do work, ie to make things happen. We can talk broadly about kinetic and potential energy, and we can drill down into each type, delving into into various subtypes such as chemical, nuclear, gravitational energy and so forth. They can be converted from one to the other and back again. We understand these forms of energy quite well. But invoking the word energy like this, in the same way as invoking quantum physics, always sets off my woometer.

We also know quite a bit about (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Properties_of_water). We know its chemical composition and behaviour. We also know a lot about how the atoms in a water molecule bind together. Imprinting "energy", or anything else for that matter, on water molecules is something that the laws of physics and chemistry as we currently understand them simply can't happen. These laws have been verified experimentally on many different occasions and not found wanting. They explain the observable universe quite well. There are Nobel prizes aplenty for anyone who can demonstrate the mechanism by which homeopathy allegedly works, placebo effects aside.

Science and technology have moved on enormously since Hahnemann's development of these ideas, but homeopathy has not. These same ideas have been propagated for over two centuries with little or no modification. It's as if we still bled hospital patients. Homeopathy may be less messy and relatively harmless in wealthy countries, but when you have snake-oil salesmen pitching homeopathic remedies for big killers like AIDS, malaria, and cancer in the place of proven science-based medication, then it's time to come down, and to come down hard. What's the harm, you ask? Look here: http://whatstheharm.net/homeopathy.html

It's the second decade of the 21st century. It's time for this pseudo-scientific twaddle to go the way of leeching and bloodletting.

Let's send it on its way.

Posted via email from John's posterous

What is Homeopathy?

I've heard a lot about this homeopathy stuff. It's for sale in almost every pharmacy here in Paris, but just what is it? Is it effective? Must be if it's for sale in a pharmacy, right?

Let's take a look at how the British Society of Homeopaths describes it - from the horses mouth, as it were. Here's their "what is" page:

http://www.homeopathy-soh.org/about-homeopathy/what-is-homeopathy/

"Homeopathy is a system of medicine which is based on treating the individual with highly diluted substances given in mainly tablet form, which triggers the body’s natural system of healing."

Hmm. Not much information there, but ok....let's read on further.

"Scientifically it can not yet be explained precisely how it works, but new research in biochemistry and quantum physics is going some way towards shedding light on the process."

How it works can't be explained, yet with an appeal to quantum physics. Curious.

"Homeopathy has been used in the UK for over two hundred years. It was Samuel Hahnemann, a brilliant doctor working in 1796 who developed the scientific and philosophical foundations of this gentler way of healing. These scientific principles form the basis of successful homeopathic practice today."

OK. First things first: Just because something lasts a long time doesn't mean it's right. Look at the Ptolemaic model of the solar system. That lasted for thousands of years until Copernicus, Kepler and Galileo came along and upset the applecart.
Next: During Hahnemann's time, when blood-letting, leeching and other sorts of prescientific medical practices were being used, just about anything non-invasive would've been gentler. This was before we knew anything about the germ theory of disease, before anesthetics, before antibiotics. A time when few children reached adulthood because of disease, and childbirth was each and every time a very serious risk to the lives of both mother and baby. In other words, medical prehistory. Since then we've learned a lot about biology, anatomy, biochemistry and pharmacology. We've learned that leeches and bloodletting don't work, but on the other hand we've held on to some of the ancient wisdom that works. For example, it's been known for millenia that the bark of the willow tree can sooth pain and from that we developed aspirin. This is how medicine, and science in general, evolves. If it works it stays, if it doesn't it gets tossed out with the leeches. To paraphrase Tim Minchin from his poem Storm: alternative medicine that works is known as medicine."

"How are the remedies made?
The raw extracts (from plants or animals) or triturations (from minerals and salts) are made into a ‘tincture’ with alcohol which forms the basis of the dilution procedure. Dilutions are made up to either 1 part tincture to 10 parts water (1x) or 1 part tincture to 100 parts water (1c). Repeated dilution results in the familiar 6x, 6c or 30c potencies that can be bought over the counter: the 30c represents an infinitessimal part of the original substance."

No information on how the "tincture" is prepared, but this is, after all, an outline. So let's do the math. 1C is a dilution of 1 part per 100 in water. 30C is 1C repeated 30 times. So I dilute it down 1:100. Then I take a part of this and dilute THAT down 1:100. Repeat 30 times. Robert L. Park, Ph.D., executive director of The American Physical Society, has noted that since the least amount of a substance in a solution is one molecule, a 30C solution would have to have at least one molecule of the original substance dissolved in a minimum of 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10^20) molecules of water. It would require a container more than 30,000,000,000 times the size of the Earth to be certain of containing 1 molecule of active ingredient at this dilution!

(source: http://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/homeo.html)

So in reality, we're left with a container of water. Wow. How could it possibly work if it's only water?

After each dilution the mixture is vigorously agitated in a machine that delivers a calibrated amount of shaking. This is called succussion. It is thought that this process leaves an energetic imprint of the medicinal substance throughout the body of water .

Here's another alarm bell. An "energetic imprint". Some mysterious energy, undetectable by science, gets imprinted in the water. In physics when we speak of energy, we refer to the ability to do work, ie to make things happen. We can talk broadly about kinetic and potential energy, and we can drill down into each type, delving into into various subtypes such as chemical, nuclear, gravitational energy and so forth. They can be converted from one to the other and back again. We understand these forms of energy quite well. But invoking the word energy like this, in the same way as invoking quantum physics, always sets off my woometer.

We also know quite a bit about (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Properties_of_water). We know its chemical composition and behaviour. We also know a lot about how the atoms in a water molecule bind together. Imprinting "energy", or anything else for that matter, on water molecules is something that the laws of physics and chemistry as we currently understand them simply can't happen. These laws have been verified experimentally on many different occasions and not found wanting. They explain the observable universe quite well. There are Nobel prizes aplenty for anyone who can demonstrate the mechanism by which homeopathy allegedly works, placebo effects aside.

Science and technology have moved on enormously since Hahnemann's development of these ideas, but homeopathy has not. These same ideas have been propagated for over two centuries with little or no modification. It's as if we still bled hospital patients. Homeopathy may be less messy and relatively harmless in wealthy countries, but when you have snake-oil salesmen pitching homeopathic remedies for big killers like AIDS, malaria, and cancer in the place of proven science-based medication, then it's time to come down, and to come down hard. What's the harm, you ask? Look here: http://whatstheharm.net/homeopathy.html

It's the second decade of the 21st century. It's time for this pseudo-scientific twaddle to go the way of leeching and bloodletting.

Let's send it on its way.

Posted via email from John's posterous

We need this kind of thing in France!

http://www.1023.org.uk/ Even at 35%, it's outrageous that the Secu reimburses magic "medicine". Might as well put Lourdes holy water on the list of approved medication!

Posted via email from John's posterous